2026 Housing Market Forecast: What Buyers and Sellers in Saratoga County Can Expect
After years of low inventory, higher mortgage rates, and limited options, many buyers and homeowners in Saratoga County are asking the same question:
Will the 2026 housing market finally make it easier to move?
Early housing market forecasts for 2026 suggest a slow but meaningful improvement. According to projections from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Realtor.com, and Zillow, the market is shifting toward better balance. This isn’t a dramatic reset—but it is a noticeable change from recent years.
While these are national housing market forecasts, how they play out in the Capital Region of New York will depend on inventory levels, pricing, and buyer demand in Albany, Saratoga, Schenectady, Rensselaer and Warren County. Today, Signature ONE Realty Group will focus on the Saratoga County market… Here’s what experts expect for the 2026 housing market—and what it could mean if you’re thinking about buying or selling.
2026 Home Sales Outlook: Slow Improvement, Not a Surge
Housing market forecasts show home sales increasing nationwide in 2026 as affordability improves, though expectations vary by source. Zillow projects the strongest growth, NAR anticipates a rebound, and Realtor.com remains more conservative—but still expects growth.
National 2026 housing forecasts project:
- NAR: A 14% increase in home sales
- Zillow: A 4.3% increase, reaching about 4.26 million total sales as pent-up demand returns
- Realtor.com: A 1.7% increase in existing home sales to approximately 4.13 million
Realtor.com’s outlook reflects continued low homeowner turnover, driven by the fact that nearly four out of five homeowners have mortgage rates below 6%.
In Saratoga County, market changes may happen unevenly. One of the best indicators of shifting demand will be how quickly new listings go under contract.
Home Price Forecast for 2026: Still Rising, But More Stable
Home prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, though at a slower and more sustainable pace. Waiting for a major price drop is unlikely to be a winning strategy. For homeowners, continued equity growth remains a strong advantage.
National home price forecasts show:
- Price growth between 1.2% (Zillow) and 4% (NAR)
- Greater price stability across most markets
- Fewer large markets seeing price declines, dropping from 24 in 2025 to 12 in 2026 (Zillow)
For homeowners in Saratoga County, this suggests solid resale value. Buyers may experience slightly more negotiating room as inventory increases.
Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2026: Lower, But Not 3%
Mortgage rates in 2026 are expected to remain above 6%, though lower than early 2025 highs. Gradual improvements in affordability should help more buyers return to the housing market.
Experts project:
- An average mortgage rate of about 6.3% in 2026 (Realtor.com)
- No return to 3% mortgage rates, even in optimistic scenarios (NAR and Zillow)
- Increased buyer activity as monthly payments become more manageable (Zillow)
While forecasts can’t predict unexpected global events, today’s conditions make ultra-low mortgage rates unlikely. For buyers in Saratoga County, connecting with a lender early can help clarify buying power and timing.
Housing Inventory in 2026: More Homes, Still Below Normal
Housing inventory is expected to increase again in 2026 after years of record lows. More homes on the market benefit both buyers and sellers by creating healthier demand.
National inventory forecasts predict:
- An 8.9% increase in existing home inventory
- Months of supply averaging about 4.6 months, approaching a balanced market
- Continued builder incentives, including rate buydowns, to support new home sales
In Saratoga County, additional inventory may reduce buyer competition, but preparation and strong offers will still matter.
Housing Affordability in 2026: A Gradual Improvement
Housing affordability is slowly shifting in buyers’ favor. While homes won’t suddenly feel inexpensive, more buyers may be able to stay active in the market.
National affordability indicators show:
- Housing payments dropping to 29.3% of income, the first dip below 30% since 2022
- Improved access for first-time buyers
- Better rent affordability, helping renters save for a down payment
For renters in Saratoga County, 2026 could be an important year to begin preparing for homeownership.
What the 2026 Housing Market Means for Buyers
Small improvements can add up for buyers navigating the 2026 housing market. Buyers in Saratoga County may benefit from:
- Slightly lower mortgage rates
- More homes for sale
- Less intense competition than recent years
The key is understanding your price range and timeline early, so you’re prepared when the right home becomes available.
What the 2026 Housing Market Means for Sellers
Sellers remain well-positioned in 2026. Prices are still rising, equity remains strong, and more buyers are entering the market. However, buyers are increasingly payment-sensitive, making pricing and presentation critical.
Sellers in Saratoga County may benefit from:
- Strong resale values
- A growing pool of qualified buyers
- Equity gains to support their next move
If selling better supports your lifestyle or financial goals, 2026 could be a smart time to act.
Bottom Line: Planning Ahead Matters in 2026
Housing market forecasts suggest 2026 will be more balanced and navigable for both buyers and sellers. In Saratoga County, thoughtful planning can help you take advantage of improving affordability and growing inventory.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2026, a strategy conversation grounded in real numbers and local market data can help you decide what makes sense and when. I’m always happy to be a resource as you plan your next move.
